São Paulo – For the second consecutive month, savings accounts registered negative net inflows, with a total of R$ 1.301 billion in May. Deposits reached R$ 107.404 billion, and withdrawals reached R$ 108.706 billion. In April, the difference was R$1.762 billion, according to data from the Central Bank. For analysts, the numbers reveal the departure of investors to more profitable lines, since in a scenario of high interest rates and inflation savings demonstrate low profitability.
The increase in withdrawn amounts, however, directly affects real estate credit. According to data from the Brazilian Association of Real Estate Credit and Savings Entities (Abecip), financing for the portfolio with savings resources reached the mark of R$ 6.16 billion in the month of April, an increase of 42% over the same period. Month of the previous year. In May, the volume of credit for real estate reached 62% of deposits in this line of investment, said Dyogo Oliveira, assistant secretary of the Ministry of Finance.
The representation of the type of investment is clear in the balance sheet for the first quarter of Caixa Econômica Federal, whose “flagship” in its portfolio is real estate credit, responsible for 61.5% of operations. The balance totaled R$113.1 billion, an increase of 50% compared to March 2010 and 8% compared to the last quarter of 2010.
Savings is the main source of funds for this line of financing, raising R$ 61.7 billion in the first three months of 2011, representing a 52.7% share. The FGTS totaled R$ 55.02 billion.
Regarding the first quarter, the vice president of Control and Risk at Caixa, Raphael Rezende Neto, stated that the fact does not reflect the current position of the financial institution. “We observed that the market had a drop in savings. Despite this, Caixa increased its participation, as it rose from 33.9% in the first quarter of last year to 34.5% in the first months of this year. We have also already seen growth in funding around R$1 billion in May. For these reasons, funding through savings accounts does not affect funding for real estate," concluded the executive.
However, sources in the financial market pointed out that Caixa is already carrying out a study on sources of fundraising that are complementary to savings.
For Celso Grisi, economist and director-president of the Fractal Research Institute, the main source of funding for real estate financing will continue with savings, and for this reason the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance should take measures to increase payment close to the rate interest rate, the Selic, which is at 12% per year. “If this source becomes even more scarce, it tends to make real estate credit more expensive. The government will have to recompose the financial remuneration, which will be passed on to financial agents and, thus, to consumers.”
In the period from May 1st to June 1st, 2011, the remuneration of savings deposits was 0.65% per month, which corresponds to 0.5% pm plus TR, which in the period was 0.15%.
With regard to the destination of investments taken from savings, the fixed income market is pointed out by analysts as the best alternative. Until May 31, 2011, net funding in the month totaled R$3.354 billion. In the sum of the year, the value reached R$ 47.492 billion, according to data from the Brazilian Association of Financial and Capital Market Entities (Anbima).
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“Private fixed income bonds reach 12.83% per year. Even if the income tax is removed, this investment yields more than 50% of savings, around 9% pa”, said Clodoir Vieira, chief economist at Sousa Barros Corretora. For the specialist, the Selic should drop to 9% or 10% pa, and inflation, to 2% or 3%, so that savings can be profitable again.
